Pascal's Wager

Lore & Background

The first written expression of this wager is in Pascal's Pensées ("Thoughts"), a posthumous compilation of previously unpublished notes. Pascal's wager is the first formal application of decision theory, existentialism, pragmatism, and voluntarism. Critics of Pascal's wager question the ability to provide definitive proof of God's existence. The argument from inconsistent revelations highlights the presence of various belief systems, each claiming exclusive access to divine truths. Additionally, the argument from inauthentic belief raises concerns about the genuineness of faith in God if it is motivated solely by potential benefits and losses.

In Their Own Story

The wager uses the following logic (excerpts from Pensées, part III, §233): "God is, or God is not. Reason cannot decide between the two alternatives" "A Game is being played ... where heads or tails will turn up" "You must wager; it is not optional" "Let us weigh the gain and the loss in wagering that God is. Let us estimate these two chances. If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing" "Wager, then, without hesitation that He is. ... There is here an infinity of an infinitely happy life to gain, a chance of gain against a finite number of chances of loss, and what you stake is finite. And so our proposition is of infinite force when there is the finite to stake in a game where there are equal risks of gain and of loss, and the infinite to gain." "But some cannot believe. They should then 'at least learn your inability to believe...' and 'Endeavour then to convince' themselves." Pascal asks the reader to analyze humankind's position, where our actions can be enormously consequential, but our understanding of those consequences is flawed. While we can discern a great deal through reason, we are ultimately forced to gamble.

Reader's Guide

Pascal describes humanity as a finite being trapped within divine incomprehensibility, briefly thrust into being from non-being, with no explanation of "Why?" or "What?" or "How?" On Pascal's view, human finitude constrains our ability to achieve truth reliably. Given that reason alone cannot determine whether God exists, Pascal concludes that this question functions as a coin toss. However, even if we do not know the outcome of this coin toss, we must base our actions on some expectation about the consequence. We must decide whether to live as though God exists, or whether to live as though God does not exist, even though we may be mistaken in either case. In Pascal's assessment, participation in this wager is not optional. Merely by existing in a state of uncertainty, we are forced to choose between the available courses of action for practical purposes.

Did You Know?

• Pascal's wager is the first formal application of decision theory.
• The wager appears in Pascal's Pensées, a posthumous compilation of previously unpublished notes.
• Pascal argues that reason cannot decide between the existence or non-existence of God.
• The wager posits that if you gain by wagering that God is, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing.
• Pascal suggests that acting as if you believe—taking holy water, having masses said—can cure unbelief.